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Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat is a seasonal forecast?+ Show more A seasonal forecast provides forecast information about the general weather conditions at seasonal timescales up to several months ahead. Long range predictions rely on predicting components of the atmosphere and the oceans which show variations at large spatial and temporal scales. Among these key components is the sea-surface temperature – an important indicator in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.  Example of probabilistic long range forecast using the multi-model ensemble. For areas nearby Peninsular Malaysia, the forecast is showing a probability of 50-70% of rainfall being in the below-normal (33%) tercile range. (Source: WMO LC LRF) To account for the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, seasonal forecast adopts a probabilistic approach and the forecast weather condition is presented as an average over an extended period of time, usually with reference to climatology. ASMC carries out monthly seasonal forecast predictions based on various seasonal model forecasts from the leading meteorological centres, supplemented by individual assessments from respective countries in South East Asia. The skillfulness of seasonal forecast relies greatly on the performance of seasonal models, which differ from one place to another and for different seasons of the year. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of UK GloSea5 seasonal hindcast for above-normal precipitation scenario for Dec – Feb (left) and May – Jul (right) over Asia region. Higher ROC score (indicated in red) means better model skill. (Source: UK Met Office) For example, one way to assess the seasonal model skills is to examine the ROC score. From the figures above, we can see that ROC score map differs greatly from one season to another. During the period from Dec to Feb, a high ROC score region is observed mainly over the Philippines whereas during the period from May to Jul, a high ROC score region is observed over the near equatorial region such as Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra. The first day of winterand the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn’t always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. So what’s in store? Here’s the Farmers’ Almanac extended winter weather forecast for the winter of 2022-2023 in the United States. Read on. The Farmers’ Almanac 2022-2023 Extended Weather Forecast: Got flannel? Hot chocolate? Snowshoes? It’s time to stock up! According to our extended forecasts, this winter season will have plenty of snow, rain, and mush—as well as some record-breaking cold temperatures! We are warning readers to get ready to “Shake, shiver, and shovel!“ The first bite of winter should come earlier than last year’s. December 2022 looks stormy and cold nationwide with an active storm pattern developing and hanging around for most of the season over the eastern half of the country. (Maybe there will be a white Christmas in some areas?) Winter Storm WarningsWhat we hear more often than not is how much snow will you get? When will the winter storm warnings start? (And when will it end!?) Well, according to our extended forecast, there should be quite a few significant winter weather disturbances nationwide in 2022-2023. A few of these dates include: 1) The first week of January in the Rockies and across the Plains. During this time, we see good potential for heavy snow that may reach as far south as Texas and Oklahoma, followed by a sweep of bitterly cold air. 2) January 16-23, we’ll raise another red flag for bouts of heavy rain and snow across the eastern two-thirds of the country followed by what might be one of the coldest outbreaks of arctic air we have seen in several years. How cold? Try 40 degrees below zero! Sign up for free weather updates, money saving tips, and more. Check out our 20 Best Life Hacks To Get You Through Winter How Much Snow Will You See This Winter Season?Winter 2022-2023 should be dominated by an active storm track in the eastern half of the country, running from the western Gulf of Mexico to the northeast, across the Virginias, and across interiorNew York State and New England. Areas south of the storm track (much of the Southeast) will see frequent storms bringing cold rains and a wintry mix of wet snow, sleet, ice, freezing rain—as well as chilly temperatures. The I-95 corridor can be included in this winter mix zone with places to the north of the track seeing the precipitation fall more as snow and at times, a lot of it. This may be especially true over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes area. Snow lovers will be happy in the North Central Statesas they will see a fair share of storminess during the winter season, which should mean plenty of snow for winter enthusiasts to enjoy (maybe even in time for a white Christmas?). The South Central States are forecast to see some accumulating snow, especially in early January. The Far West and the Pacific Northwest will see about-normal winter precipitation; however, the Southwest will experience less than normal. How Cold Will It Get?The big takeaway for our winter season forecast is that frigid temperatures should flow into many areas nationwide—especially in the North Central region, where readers will certainly be shaking and shivering! Stay safe during severe cold weather. Here are some useful tips. Hot Chocolate Warning In The East and SouthA cold December and a very cold January might make readers in the Northeast shake and shiver. But February will bring milder temperatures that should make winter seem more bearable. The Southeast will experience some shivers, especially during the month of January. Fortunately, for the snowbirds, February will likewise warm the region to near-normal winter season temperatures overall. Winter will feel unreasonably cold for readers in the Great Lakes region, especially in January. Farther south, into the Southern Plains, temperatures will average chillier than normal. The Pacific Northwest will see brisk/cool conditions, and the Southwest will be the mild area of the country, with near-normal winter temperatures. See more details for your location. Learn how we make our forecasts. View our Fall Extended Weather Forecast now. Get Our Canadian Extended Forecast!When will it Warm Up?After the vernal equinox, when we should be slipping into spring, expect a lion-like end of March. There should be a wide variety of weather conditions, ranging from heavy snows to torrents of rain to gusty thunderstorms across much of the nation. Buy a copy of Farmers’ Almanac 2023 today! View Canada’s Fall Extended Weather Forecast Now. Farmers’ Almanac Members can view the entire year ahead, Memberships start at $9.99, sign-up for instant online access now. What will be the hottest day in May 2022?With a high temperature of 96°F on May 12, this tied May 27, 1874, May 19, 1934, & May 29, 2018, for the 5th warmest high during the month of May.
Will it be hot in May 2022 in the UK?Fifty-fifty chance temperatures could breach 1.5°C in next five years. Tuesday will see the bulk of the rain in the west, with drier conditions in the east and on Wednesday the front will cross us from west to east, but may affect us most overnight.
Will it rain on May 29 2022?Skies will be mostly clear for tonight, with mild lows in the low 60s. Very warm temperatures in the upper 80s and sunny skies are in store for Memorial Day.
Why is Singapore so hot May 2022?The inter-monsoon season
But aside from these factors which are constant throughout the year, what made May 2022 particularly hot? The answer to that is the inter-monsoon season. On March 16, 2022, the Meteorological Service Singapore forecast the onset of an inter-monsoon period.
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